Dated, source-linked scenario adjustments · neutral unless evidence is entered
One signal contributes a bounded heuristic overlay; not a measured bid count.
How to read this: the center estimate combines a damped recent-price trend, bid pressure versus the category's trailing median, latest quota versus recent quota, and the latest 3-month registration change. Scenario news and launch factors are explicit analyst overlays, not machine-read forecasts. The BYD ATTO 1 Cat A launch is preloaded at +0.50% until 10 Oct; post-launch LTA registration data is not yet available in this snapshot. No public dealer booking/order-book feed is used.
Model limits: each central 50% historical range uses the 25th–75th percentiles of the latest 21 available cross-month moves (Exercise 2 to next Exercise 1) for that category, applied to the point estimate. This is empirical coverage, not a guaranteed next-tender probability; sample sizes are small and historical COE/news/LTA effects cannot be separated or filtered in this data. Registration history is refreshed monthly from the official monthly registration dataset; on the hosted dashboard, GitHub Actions refreshes it on the 16th at 15:30 Singapore time. COE tender results refresh Wednesdays and Thursdays at 15:30 Singapore time. Scheduled Actions runs may be delayed by GitHub; these are target times, not exact-time guarantees. Global/geopolitical factors have no automatic adjustment unless a dated, source-linked signal is added.
Current and Historical COE Data
Auto update scheduled for Wednesdays and Thursdays at 15:30 Singapore time; keep this page open.